A number of polls have come out this week and Senator Obama has opened up a 10 point lead in Iowa and an 8 point lead in Michigan. Both those polls came from Rasmussen, which also came out with a South Dakota poll that shows that race tightening — Senator McCain leads 44-40. These polls continue a trend of strengthening spreads for Obama in the upper midwest — the last Wisconsin and Minnesota polls (states that were very close in 2004) — has Obama ahead by double digits.
Putting all the recent polls together, Obama is ahead, outside the margin of error, in states with 259 electoral votes, compared with 151 for McCain. As always, we caution that the campaign has just begun…. running mates haven’t been picked and the candidates haven’t even formally been nominated…. so take the numbers for what they are… an indication of where things stand today, and nothing more.
2 responses so far ↓
1 quincyconscience // Jul 17, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Could you please adjust your map so that Montana, the Dakotas, and Indiana are toss ups, because they really are not close enough to count republican
270toWin: The polling map reflects the current tightness of the polls in those states. The interactive map reflects a combination of history and polling. None of the three states you mentioned have gone Democratic in the last 10 elections (except Montana in 1992). We’re too far out to consider those states in play.
You may notice we also have Florida as a swing state, despite McCain being significantly ahead in recent polls.
As the election draws near, the polling map and interactive map will align.
2 Jack // Jul 23, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Then again, Virginia hasn’t gone Democratic since 1964, either. I understand that there is more reason to think Virginia is trending towards the center than, say, North Dakota or Montana, but consider that Montana has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators, and that both of North Dakota’s senators and its sole representative are Democrats. South Dakota also has a Democratic senator and congresswoman. Combined with the limited polling, this indicates that these two states are not as reliably Republican as they once were. I understand (and to a degree agree with) your reluctance to consider these true swing states, but if many more polls come out suggesting that these states are close, you may want to consider making that move.
Leave a Comment