Comments on: New Swing State Polls Show Continuing Volatility of Race http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race This isn't a Popularity Contest Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:50:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Richard http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-1219 Richard Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:22:44 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-1219 Bradley effect? Perhaps with southern white dinasours born before baby boom. How about the Hollywood effect? Haven't the younger generations been exposed to see African American presidents in movies? Bradley effect? Perhaps with southern white dinasours born before baby boom. How about the Hollywood effect? Haven’t the younger generations been exposed to see African American presidents in movies?

]]> By: mark http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-900 mark Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:19:31 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-900 sorry quincy, that doesnt pass the smell test...........back in march, mccain spoke on the issue of russia and georgia........he made it clear , his thoughts on putin and the big bear....kaine didnt have a .."context".......he said it.he meant it.......sometimes a rose is just a rose.no context needed.just my opinion. sorry quincy, that doesnt pass the smell test………..back in march, mccain spoke on the issue of russia and georgia……..he made it clear , his thoughts on putin and the big bear….kaine didnt have a ..”context”…….he said it.he meant it…….sometimes a rose is just a rose.no context needed.just my opinion.

]]> By: quincyconscience http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-894 quincyconscience Sat, 16 Aug 2008 09:11:50 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-894 Kaine also adds to the inexperienced claim. Kaine is the most talked about non-clinton who is not going to be VP in my opinion. This VP situation seems like it could become volatile if it is played wrongly. I think with context the Kaine did not mean that Russia was literally listening to Obama, but meant it as a kind of people do what he says because its the best path. Another example of this could be someone saying Clinton starting listening to Obama on Iraq, when she was just changing her mind because of new information. Politicians consistently use this tactic to show how their candidate was right first. McCain is certainly no stranger to this particular technique Kaine also adds to the inexperienced claim. Kaine is the most talked about non-clinton who is not going to be VP in my opinion. This VP situation seems like it could become volatile if it is played wrongly. I think with context the Kaine did not mean that Russia was literally listening to Obama, but meant it as a kind of people do what he says because its the best path. Another example of this could be someone saying Clinton starting listening to Obama on Iraq, when she was just changing her mind because of new information. Politicians consistently use this tactic to show how their candidate was right first. McCain is certainly no stranger to this particular technique

]]> By: mark http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-892 mark Fri, 15 Aug 2008 18:55:13 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-892 dear 270towin staff..........thats a great point..........makes kaine look even sillier......p.s....gallup has it tied today....Im beginning to think that the state polls are coming in line with the nationals.....your earlier analysis was right on point............thank you dear 270towin staff……….thats a great point……….makes kaine look even sillier……p.s….gallup has it tied today….Im beginning to think that the state polls are coming in line with the nationals…..your earlier analysis was right on point…………thank you

]]> By: mark http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-891 mark Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:35:45 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-891 I cant argue with your latest post...........darn.......lol........I would say that kaine isnt obama's "magic bullet"........polls ive seen have kaines approval rating under 50%......car tax issues.......along with drilling....seem to doom kaine as his running mate......along with kaines silly comment on "russia listened to obama's directions" when its clear that mccain has a much better understanding of geo-politics.........just my opinion..... 270toWin: Doesn't seem like Russia is listening to anyone right now. Foreign policy questions will not be limited to just Iraq in the debates this fall. I cant argue with your latest post………..darn…….lol……..I would say that kaine isnt obama’s “magic bullet”……..polls ive seen have kaines approval rating under 50%……car tax issues…….along with drilling….seem to doom kaine as his running mate……along with kaines silly comment on “russia listened to obama’s directions” when its clear that mccain has a much better understanding of geo-politics………just my opinion…..

270toWin: Doesn’t seem like Russia is listening to anyone right now. Foreign policy questions will not be limited to just Iraq in the debates this fall.

]]> By: quincyconscience http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-888 quincyconscience Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:52:42 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-888 I could talk about new registration figures and primary voting figures all day, but what I find most interesting is that this state is polling within 5 points consistently. There are over half a million registered voters in the 18-25 age range in Virginia (http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/virginia/dp-va--youngvoters0721jul21,0,6890764.story) This number can't just be ignored, no matter who they end up breaking towards. Obama obviously is playing the ground game in virgina which can aid turnout. Now this certainly doesn't mean he has any secret advantage in the state as a whole, as many factors could go against him as well, such as the possibility of a perceived snub of Kaine and his position of offshore drilling which is widely viewed as popular in Virginia just like most of the rest of the country. It is simply a factor that makes polling in Virginia particularly hard to predict this election I could talk about new registration figures and primary voting figures all day, but what I find most interesting is that this state is polling within 5 points consistently. There are over half a million registered voters in the 18-25 age range in Virginia (http://www.dailypress.com/news/local/virginia/dp-va–youngvoters0721jul21,0,6890764.story)
This number can’t just be ignored, no matter who they end up breaking towards. Obama obviously is playing the ground game in virgina which can aid turnout. Now this certainly doesn’t mean he has any secret advantage in the state as a whole, as many factors could go against him as well, such as the possibility of a perceived snub of Kaine and his position of offshore drilling which is widely viewed as popular in Virginia just like most of the rest of the country. It is simply a factor that makes polling in Virginia particularly hard to predict this election

]]> By: mark http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-884 mark Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:13:37 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-884 quincy.........interesting hypothesis.......in regards too virginia....Im gonna play the historical odds............virginia votes republican in presidential elections.......and with obama a far left candidate.....will do so again........and for more anecdotal evidence: the "young" vote doesnt turn out like the older and military..especially in va....84% of under 24 voters that are registered didnt actually vote in 2004........anyway.nice post...sincerely.mark quincy………interesting hypothesis…….in regards too virginia….Im gonna play the historical odds…………virginia votes republican in presidential elections…….and with obama a far left candidate…..will do so again……..and for more anecdotal evidence: the “young” vote doesnt turn out like the older and military..especially in va….84% of under 24 voters that are registered didnt actually vote in 2004……..anyway.nice post…sincerely.mark

]]> By: quincyconscience http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-883 quincyconscience Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:33:04 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-883 Obviously PPP and Strategic Vision can have trouble remaining neutral due to their respective party allegiances. Also online polls like Zogby interactive clearly trend obama (shocker: Obama's supporters are younger!!!!11!!one!). Most polls have a real MoE of about 7-10 historically. Unfortunately for close elections, when a poll shows a one or two point difference it is least accurate, as has consistently been the case in Virginia. I take little stock in the idea that anybody really gets Virginia with its surging population demographics. The Bradley effect seems to be on the ground, alive and well in this particular state (I live in Northern Virginia most of the year). This may be countered by the fact that I literally can't go to a single food store within a mile of my residence and expect the cashier to know fluent English. Again the young voter thing is also alive with the large amount of universities, but many of them are slightly more conservative than the average institution such as GMU and to a lesser extent Virginia Tech. Nobody knows whats going on in Virginia for the presidential race, so for that reason polls of Virginia, regardless of company are the least likely to be accurate given the large amount of factors counting against accurate polling numbers. Obviously PPP and Strategic Vision can have trouble remaining neutral due to their respective party allegiances. Also online polls like Zogby interactive clearly trend obama (shocker: Obama’s supporters are younger!!!!11!!one!). Most polls have a real MoE of about 7-10 historically. Unfortunately for close elections, when a poll shows a one or two point difference it is least accurate, as has consistently been the case in Virginia. I take little stock in the idea that anybody really gets Virginia with its surging population demographics. The Bradley effect seems to be on the ground, alive and well in this particular state (I live in Northern Virginia most of the year). This may be countered by the fact that I literally can’t go to a single food store within a mile of my residence and expect the cashier to know fluent English. Again the young voter thing is also alive with the large amount of universities, but many of them are slightly more conservative than the average institution such as GMU and to a lesser extent Virginia Tech. Nobody knows whats going on in Virginia for the presidential race, so for that reason polls of Virginia, regardless of company are the least likely to be accurate given the large amount of factors counting against accurate polling numbers.

]]> By: mark http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-882 mark Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:43:50 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-882 quincy..........that was a well-written response to alex...............I appreciate lively debate...thrust and perry.give and take..........just one question........What do you think the worst poll is/...as far as being biased...one way or the other.......im curious..........sincerely.mark quincy……….that was a well-written response to alex……………I appreciate lively debate…thrust and perry.give and take……….just one question……..What do you think the worst poll is/…as far as being biased…one way or the other…….im curious……….sincerely.mark

]]> By: mark http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race/comment-page-1#comment-881 mark Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:36:40 +0000 http://www.270towin.com/blog/2008-polls/new-swing-state-polls-show-continuing-volatility-of-race#comment-881 alex.....I never accused 270 of being biased..........I was only concerned about the outdated polls cited by their website..........I never tried to convince the bloggers to do anything.except update their polls.......as for who im supporting...its irrelevant.....like I stated earlier.I like 270towin and will pass the word on the site.thats as fair as one could possibly be.........sincerely.mark alex…..I never accused 270 of being biased……….I was only concerned about the outdated polls cited by their website……….I never tried to convince the bloggers to do anything.except update their polls…….as for who im supporting…its irrelevant…..like I stated earlier.I like 270towin and will pass the word on the site.thats as fair as one could possibly be………sincerely.mark

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