**Update on 1/13/08   We’ve temporarily reverted this feature to display based on 2004 actual results.   Given the results in IA and NH, there are clearly no front runners yet in either party, and the polling is all over the place depending on which two candidates are compared.    Once it is more clear who the nominees will be (hopefully by Super Tuesday on Feb. 5), we will return to using 2008 actual polls and tie those into the swing states map.**

Please read this post before using the information that follows.

We’ve populated our “Probability of 270″ beta feature (below the interactive map) with some early general election polls of Giuliani vs. Clinton. We’re not predicting these will be the candidates, but this combination seems at least as likely as any other, and it is one with the most polling available.

Note that we weren’t able to locate polls for every state, and some polls are a couple months old. We tried to grab the most recent one available. Many of those states where polling wasn’t available were states with wide margins in 2004, which likely will still be one-sided in 2008. For these, and a few closer ones, we will continue to use the 2004 actual results until actual polls become available.

Given the above, we’re still going to keep this in ‘beta mode’ for the time being.

Polling sources for 11/26/07 update:

• SurveyUSA: AL, CA, IA, KS, KY, MA, MN, MO, NH, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, VA, WA, WI
• Brown Univ: RI
• Critical Insights: ME
• MTSU: TN
• Quinnipiac: CT, FL, NJ, PA
• Rasmussen: AZ, AR, GA, IL, MD, MI, NC, TX
• RBI: CO

The following states are still using 2004 results: AK, DC, DE, HI, ID, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, NV, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY