We’ve moved New Hampshire from toss-up to Obama today, as several recent polls show him with a 10+ point lead. As of today, we show Obama with 264 EV and McCain with 163 EV. This is based on states that are >5 point spread based on a composite of recent polls.
As of today (and we want to emphasize the importance of “as of today” since the polls have bounced around quite a bit), McCain would have to win all 8 states that remain in play: NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC & FL. (If he wins all but NV we end up with a 269-269 tie). The good news for McCain supporters is that the last time ANY of these states voted Democratic was 1996. The bad news is that many of them voted for Clinton that year and Obama has pulled slightly ahead in the largest of these undecided states, Ohio and Florida.
{ 28 comments… read them below or add one }
Jesus Christ on a crutch! Statistically, it’s looking bad for McCain- but realistically, it’s a bit like what Mark Twain said: “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” If this were data about asteroids, it would be possible to draw a definite conclusion, but these are humans, who can have completely irrational motivations, and often resist categorization. Take it with a grain of salt.
Can you please, please, please make an animation of the polling map changing. I am wishing I had taken screen shots everyday so I could see the blues turn darker and lighter and the reds turn darker and lighter and the swing states changing. I am losing track of what has been happening I have a hard time remembering which states used to be swing and are now decided. Please. Thank you.
270toWin: There are a lot of things we’d like to do (e.g., we should combine the polling and interactive maps and have mouseovers of the poll numbers), but we’re not in a position to make that kind of a change for this election cycle. These kinds of changes are more difficult to implement than they might seem, but we’ll add your suggestion to the list for the next election.
Let us assume that we are robots without emotions and preferences.
Then the data of pollsters, and the bets at INTRADE look extremely bad for McCain. That things change in less than a month is only possible through terrorist attacks or Invasions of Countries by Russia.
I want to call attention to Bets. People that bet money feel more pain than pollsters when they err. And Bettors are crazy for Obama on the Toss Up States. They know their own State and the likelihood of Swinging.
So I feel sure that Obama wins. The interesting point is How Obama will win, the toss up states more likely to give the boost to Obama.
And the Racial and Demographic Composition of the Obama Coalition.
That is what we are going to study for the next years.
http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/
http://milenials.blogspot.com/
Vicente Duque.
What fascinates me is that the “simulator results” page has recently removed the sentence “These ranges indicate the 2008 election remains very competitive.”
That sentence has been with us through high and low for both candidates. There was no fanfare, but I was wondering, in light of the results you were posting, when you were going to take it down.
In response to a previous comment, it makes a certain sense that bettors (Intrade for example) know their business rather better than the run of pollsters. It’s widely acknowledged not to be the case, however. Intrade in particular is notoriously inaccurate.
Don’t forget that this is how the commercial pollsters make their living. It’s at least as financially important to them to get it right.
270toWin: We had that sentence in there because we didn’t want people to focus on the average outcome but rather the spread of outcomes. Even with one candidate winning 70 or 80% of the simulations, it was still a very close race, with a small move in one of the larger states making a big difference in the % of victory. As of now, it would take a reversal in multiple states to make the race competitive again. That said, it is worth pointing out, as we did on a separate post, that while McCain would need to win all 8 of the states that remain in the toss-up category (as of today), none of those states have voted Democratic since at least 1996, and some not in decades.
I acknowledge the truth of what you say. I, for one, though, believe that this year is going to throw the history books out of the window.
No Democrat has ever won the presidency while losing both Kentucky and Texas. This fact notwithstanding, not only 270towin but several similar sites (as of this writing) agree that if the election were held today Obama would have better than a 90% chance of winning the election. Most, including you, make the chance increasingly close to 100%. And yet no one seriously thinks at this point that either Kentucky or Texas is likely to turn blue in the next 3 1/2 weeks.
The only point is that the “party playbook” by states may be nearly as useless after this election as it was after the 1964 election.
This all remains to be seen of course.
Great site BTW. I come here several times a day in the election season.
I have three words to describe my position. “Dewey defeats Truman” That is why we have elections and people go to the polls. If pollsters decide it all then what is the point.
I have a plot of land in Truckee, California and I am looking for people to rent it to. I welcome both Republicans and Democrats to move in; however the rent shall be 1 Zimbabwean dollar (about 1/1000 of a US cent) per month for Republican families and $700 trillion per month for Democrats. I am looking to have at least 17,000,000 tenants on this one square mile of land; each renter will get approximately half a square inch of land to call their own. All residents of the new town of Truckee will be expected to transfer their voting registration to California and vote in November’s election so that California’s 55 electoral votes can be delivered to McCain. I will have my cousins in New York and Florida do likewise and ensure that the election as a whole ends in a Republican victory.
Kentucky is a very strange state, I should know as I live here. The state has long been a democratic stronghold at the state and local government levels.
However when it comes to Presidential elections, things change dramatically. The voter turn out for a Presidential Election is higher than any other election we have. Because of this, you have more people voting than what is normally expected. Especially in areas of the state that would be considered rural counties.
The rural population of the state vastly outnumbers the city population. Rural voters pereceive, act, and live almost the exact opposite of city dwellers.
Your average rural voter in the state of Kentucky is white, very conservative, deeply religious, and adapts to change slowly. I know this because I am a rural resident in the state of Kentucky. The people, while good hearted, have a tendencey to stick with what they know. Race is the big factor as to why Obama will lose the state of Kentucky. This has very little to do with racism and more to do with the status quo. The status quo for the American President has always been a white middle to senior age male. The rural populace will have the “go with what you know” attitude and vote for McCain.
Ultimately when the county by county breakdown for this election is revealed, you will find that McCain will every county except for Jefferson County (city of Louisville) and Fayette County (city of Lexington).
I am a registered republican, but I consider myself a political moderate. Barack Obama is getting my vote, but I sincerely believe that he only has about a 30% of winning Kentucky unless something happens that causes voters to lose faith in McCain.
I wouldn’t put too much emphasis on Kentucky. Ohio and Florida are the states to watch. Those are must wins for McCain. Perhaps most significant of all is the fact that McCain must now campaign in states that were presumed strongholds for him. Opportunities abound for Obama to pick up additional electors. It looks difficult for McCain. His only hope is to turn the polls on a national basis. Also, it does look like Palin has been a real drag on the ticket.
Sauberei // Oct 9, 2008 at 8:48 pm
I have a plot of land in Truckee, California and I am looking for people to rent it to. I welcome both Republicans and Democrats to move in; however the rent shall be 1 Zimbabwean dollar (about 1/1000 of a US cent) per month for Republican families and $700 trillion per month for Democrats. I am looking to have at least 17,000,000 tenants on this one square mile of land; each renter will get approximately half a square inch of land to call their own. All residents of the new town of Truckee will be expected to transfer their voting registration to California and vote in November’s election so that California’s 55 electoral votes can be delivered to McCain. I will have my cousins in New York and Florida do likewise and ensure that the election as a whole ends in a Republican victory.
Another original thought for today! Do you think you are so smart for thinking this or do you think the rest of the world is so dumb for not thinking of this?
This is called ‘gerrymandering’.
There is always the problem of turnout at elections that keeps things unknown. A lot of people give opinions to pollsters but some will not even vote for any number of reasons. Weather can play avoc on a turnout for sure.
One of the dangers for Republicans is keeping spirits up in spite of diappointing polls. This could easily translate to apathy among easy Republicans-think an attitude of ‘well the Democrats are going to win anyway, what difference does me not voting make?’
That attitude could see a poor turn-out in some states, leaving the door open for a surprise win like in Kentucky.
Equally, the same could happen with Democrats. Over complacency in the electorate could offer a surprise win to the Republicans.
That is the thing with elections. Opinion polls are fairly meaningless unless the subjects actually get out and vote!!!
Two words: Bradley effect.
I believe the Bradley effect increases as the number of times the word “racist” comes up, especially in ridiculous exaggeration like “that one.”
Someone asked for an animated electoral map?
http://election.loquacious.org/2008-presidential/
North Dakota and Montana are “Bettors Curiosities” :
These are the Last Prices to buy shares at INTRADE :
Montana (3EVs) ………. Obama 31.0, McCain 73.0
North Dakota (3EVs) ….. Obama 27.0, McCain 75.0
Very remarkable that people risk their money for Obama in these two states. They were assumed 100% secure for McCain a few weeks ago.
Are there any indications of Obama going up in some polls ????
I have been following the Toss Up States behaviour in bets. Everyday I fill the prices in my tables.
Is Obama investing resources there ????
http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/
http://milenials.blogspot.com/
Vicente Duque
The Bradley Effect has been studied extensively and the upshot is that while there may have been elections where it existed, it isn’t showing up in a statistical sense now.
There are plenty of good reasons, by the way — the most glaring of which is that there are non-race related reasons to not vote Obama and therefore no reason to lie about those reasons.
As to “Dewey Defeats Truman” — the basic explanation for that was sampling error — that is, the way the poll was conducted had a GOP lean because the people likely top be polled were wealthier — remember, in 1948 a telephone was a luxury that fewer people — mostly wealthy — had. (I’m old enough to remember party lines, which was what most lower-income people were using until the late 70s).
Polls are a lot more sophisticated now, and while one poll might be way off, several averaged polls (or in more sophisticated analyses, averaged polls with a regression weighted for sample size) won’t be. Whether people are rational or not doesn’t factor into it.
Also, one of the reasons a lot of GOP strongholds look shaky is that the Democrats showed up. You will always lose a state if you don’t open a local party office or have no staff there. Back in 2000 and 2004 there was not a single Dem staffer to be found in places like Kentucky. That’s changed. Same for many other states.
In that sense, the Dems learned from the GOP — never concede a state. You never know what might happen if you contest it. You may not see results for a cycle or two, but the Republicans were patient and the Southern Strategy paid off big time — it just took about 8-10 years.
Has there been any actual registered voter polling in the State of Arkansas lately? I am not talking about July or earlier, I mean lately like October 2008!!
270toWin: There were a couple polls in late September that had McCain up around 10 points.
Sauberei ,
Where are you going to get 17,000,000 Republicans without losing other states for McCain?
I wrote that when the polling was less lopsided than now.
dont believe the polls! this race is far from over. dont let the drive by media or the map on this web site deter you from getting out to vote on election day . ACORN should be shut down!
The problem from McCain campaign team is that they are still using the campaign idealogy of four and eight years ago-which like it or not was successful. I have always felt McCain should have been presented in the cuddly grandfather light as a strong, dependable, wise man and not the ‘angry maverick’. I think the country would have gone for a ‘times are tough but we will get through this stronger than ever’.
The Obama campaign has been brilliant in a sense that they have done very little. Why get in the way of your oppenent when they are shooting themselves in the foot?
Quote:
almighty // Oct 15, 2008 at 3:58 pm
dont believe the polls! this race is far from over. dont let the drive by media or the map on this web site deter you from getting out to vote on election day . ACORN should be shut down!
Okay! My challenge is for everyone who believes the polls are wrong, just go and back your judgments and bet on the outcome. McCain is around 4/1 and more, so if you are correct put your money where your mouth is.
Any takers???
I hope and pray mcain wins because of his stand against abortion and he has showed his loyalty to his country because of service. If obama filled out a applacation for the FBI he would be turned down because of his so called long ago friends . I think if he is not good enough for the FBI he should not be even given a chance for president!!
i think obama is fit for the job and mccain is not we need someone to change this world not someone that is gonig to be like bush
If the polls are accurate, then it’s turning into a landslide. If you’re a Republican, and you’re trailing in Virginia and North Carolina, then it’s not looking good.
Don’t dismiss McCain yet, on November 4th, we’ll see if the Bradley effect is a real phenomenon, or if excluding cell phone only voters from polling data makes any difference.
The Bradley Effect will be greatly diminished. Why ???
Racism has very often been cited as a cause for the defeat of Obama. But Americans are more educated, cultured and cultivated now. The Press and TV are more civilized.
Consider the “Bad Boys” of TV Networks that have been so mean to Obama :
They try to be conciliatory and invite Many Black Friends to their shows. They constantly promote themselves as non racists and constantly condemn racism and are very incensed when they are called “racists”.
I give these “bad” guys the benefit of the doubt and I think that they are changing for the best. Under a White House with a black family inside, the “bad boys of TV” will become even better guys and sweeter than they are now towards the “Otherness” and “that one”.
They have to become so, because there is a Big Demographic Revolution underway. The White Population is ageing.
These TV guys are adapting to a new Racial Situation, a Silent Compact or Covenant.
So the low culture people and the less educated are exposed to lots of “good will” propaganda among races and ethnics.
And the most racists in the media see that they are going to fall in big trouble if they don’t pay lip service to Racial Harmony.
http://tossUpStates.blogspot.com/
http://milenials.blogspot.com/
Vicente Duque
It looks like North Dakota and West Virginia are in toss-up mode.
I agree with your caution on the Virginia move, principally because it indicates a victory for Obama. Your additional reason that it has not recently voted Democratic I think is not as strong. You were willing to move New Mexico and Iowa with less caution, and I think rightly. I think we all believe that a number of traditionally Republican states are likely to go Democratic this year, and that a certain degree of realignment is possible.
I’m wondering whether you intend to exercise increased caution with the remaining states, all of which have recently tended to vote Republican.
270toWin: Virginia hasn’t voted blue since 1964, while the other states you list were very tight in the last couple elections, and while they went red in 2004, the prior several elections each was blue. In addition, both Iowa and New Mexico have favored Obama significantly since summer, while the breakout in Virginia came much later. In fact, there was a new poll out in VA this week that was again within the margin of error, but at this point it seems like an outlier. Hard to say what will happen with the other states. They are all rather tight, with very few polls outside the MOE.
this whole thing is a joke i mean whats the point in the whole election process if people are going to keep speculating whos going to win? We might as well not have the real election since NBC and CBs are constantly throwing new polls at us everyday? Imean right about now people are just feed up with it. I mean whats the point in someone voting for Obama in Texas when its “for sure going to McCain?” I mean theyre informative I’m not denying their fundamental purpose but it just influences people to not even bother voting. I mean Obama is going to win no matter what happens in the next 4 days.