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Battleground 270

Features like our election simulator and the Probability of 270 (below the electoral map) are primarily based on an average of recent polls for each state. We take those averages and turn them into a probability that each candidate will win the state and its electoral votes. From there it is just a mathematical calculation.

Battleground 270 lets you set and adjust the probabilities that Obama or Romney will win each state, letting you see how those changes impact the overall likelihood of each candidate winning the election.

We start with eleven battleground states: Obama starts with a 201-191 lead in electoral votes, with 146 electoral votes up for grabs. Any changes you make here do not affect other sections of the site.

10,000 simulations based on the current 270toWin winning probabilities for each battleground state. Next: Go to Adjust Probabilities to review and customize these projections.

Default Results Based on Polling Data

Winning Percent
% ties

Electoral Votes
Average
Median
Most Common*
Lowest
Highest

* The most frequent outcome occurred % of the time.

Review our calculated probabilities (based primarily on polling averages) and modify as you wish. Next: Go to Before and After or Win or Lose to see how your changes impact the results.

Display probabilities for:

 60%

 42%

 65%

 83%

 33%

 68%

 76%

 68%

 76%

 57%

 79%


To run Before and After, please adjust the probability in one or more states. You can also go to Win or Lose, which can be run against the 270toWin calculated probabilities.
Click the button to run 10,000 simulations with your customized probabilities and compare the 'after' results to the default 'before' results.


After:

 
Winning Percent
% ties

Electoral Votes
Average
Median
Most Common*
Lowest
Highest

* The most frequent outcome occurred % of the time.


Before:

 
Winning Percent
% ties

Electoral Votes
Average
Median
Most Common*
Lowest
Highest

* The most frequent outcome occurred % of the time.

Select one of the states below to run 10,000 simulations assuming Romney wins the state and compare to 10,000 simulations assuming Obama wins the state. Other than the win/lose state, all probabilities are based on those you set in the Adjust Probabilities tab.


Obama wins :

 
Winning Percent
% ties

Electoral Votes
Average
Median
Most Common*
Lowest
Highest

* The most frequent outcome occurred % of the time.


Romney wins :

 
Winning Percent
% ties

Electoral Votes
Average
Median
Most Common*
Lowest
Highest

* The most frequent outcome occurred % of the time.

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