FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Final Ratings: November 6, 2018
This is a Senate forecast map derived from the probabilities associated with the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast (Classic Version). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2018 House forecast.

The toss-up tan color is used when neither party has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher Democratic and Republican probabilities, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). These ranges match those used on the FiveThirtyEight site.

The map reflects the model output as of the timestamp below it.
no 2018 election
no 2018 election
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
 
VP
S
S

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

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Senate Elections 2018

Current 49 51
Pro 44 50 6
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map

Upcoming Elections

Now 2018 2020* 2022^
47 24 11 12
2 2
51 9 21 21

* Excludes MN and MS seats to be filled by special election in 2018
^ Excludes AZ seat to be filled by special election in 2020

* The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Pro Rating
AZ Jeff Flake
2013 1st
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL Bill Nelson
2001 3rd
IN Joe Donnelly
2013 1st
ME Angus King
2013 1st
MI Debbie Stabenow
2001 3rd
MN Tina Smith
2018 1st
MO Claire McCaskill
2007 2nd
MS Cindy Hyde-Smith
2018 1st
MT Jon Tester
2007 2nd
ND Heidi Heitkamp
2013 1st
NJ Bob Menendez
2006 3rd
NV Dean Heller
2011 2nd
OH Sherrod Brown
2007 2nd
PA Bob Casey
2007 2nd
TN Bob Corker
2007 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX Ted Cruz
2013 1st
VT Bernie Sanders
2007 2nd
WI Tammy Baldwin
2013 1st
WV Joe Manchin
2011 2nd
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AK Lisa Murkowski
2002 4th
AK Dan Sullivan
2015 1st
AL Richard Shelby
1987 6th
AL Doug Jones
2018 1st
AR John Boozman
2011 2nd
AR Tom Cotton
2015 1st
AZ Jon Kyl
2018 1st
CA Kamala Harris
2017 1st
CA Dianne Feinstein
1992 5th
CO Michael Bennet
2009 3rd
CO Cory Gardner
2015 1st
CT Richard Blumenthal
2011 2nd
CT Chris Murphy
2013 1st
DE Tom Carper
2001 3rd
DE Christopher Coons
2011 2nd
FL Marco Rubio
2011 2nd
GA Johnny Isakson
2005 3rd
GA David Perdue
2015 1st
HI Brian Schatz
2012 2nd
HI Mazie Hirono
2013 1st
IA Chuck Grassley
1981 7th
IA Joni Ernst
2015 1st
ID Mike Crapo
1999 4th
ID Jim Risch
2009 2nd
IL Tammy Duckworth
2017 1st
IL Dick Durbin
1997 4th
IN Todd Young
2017 1st
KS Jerry Moran
2011 2nd
KS Pat Roberts
1997 4th
KY Rand Paul
2011 2nd
KY Mitch McConnell
1985 6th
LA John Kennedy
2017 1st
LA Bill Cassidy
2015 1st
MA Elizabeth Warren
2013 1st
MA Ed Markey
2013 2nd
MD Chris Van Hollen
2017 1st
MD Ben Cardin
2007 2nd
ME Susan Collins
1997 4th
MI Gary Peters
2015 1st
MN Amy Klobuchar
2007 2nd
MO Roy Blunt
2011 2nd
MS Roger Wicker
2007 2nd
MT Steve Daines
2015 1st
NC Richard Burr
2005 3rd
NC Thom Tillis
2015 1st
ND John Hoeven
2011 2nd
NE Deb Fischer
2013 1st
NE Ben Sasse
2015 1st
NH Maggie Hassan
2017 1st
NH Jeanne Shaheen
2009 2nd
NJ Cory Booker
2013 2nd
NM Martin Heinrich
2013 1st
NM Tom Udall
2009 2nd
NV Catherine Masto
2017 1st
NY Chuck Schumer
1999 4th
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
2009 2nd
OH Rob Portman
2011 2nd
OK James Lankford
2015 2nd
OK Jim Inhofe
1995 5th
OR Ron Wyden
1996 5th
OR Jeff Merkley
2009 2nd
PA Patrick Toomey
2011 2nd
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
2007 2nd
RI Jack Reed
1997 4th
SC Tim Scott
2013 2nd
SC Lindsey Graham
2003 3rd
SD John Thune
2005 3rd
SD Mike Rounds
2015 1st
TN Lamar Alexander
2003 3rd
TX John Cornyn
2003 3rd
UT Mike Lee
2011 2nd
UT Orrin Hatch
1977 7th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
VA Tim Kaine
2013 1st
VA Mark Warner
2009 2nd
VT Patrick Leahy
1975 8th
WA Patty Murray
1993 5th
WA Maria Cantwell
2001 3rd
WI Ron Johnson
2011 2nd
WV Shelley Capito
2015 1st
WY John Barrasso
2007 2nd
WY Mike Enzi
1997 4th