Who Will Control the Senate?

A 2014 Senate Election Simulation

This simulation lets you forecast which party will control the Senate after the 2014 elections. Each of the 36 Senate races starts with a probability of Republican or Democrat victory. These values are an average of those used in the election models created by The New York Times and The Washington Post. Those models incorporate numerous factors such as polls, historical elections, fundraising, and state/national political climate. Increased weight will be given to polling as the election draws closer.

Select a state to customize its probability. Each time you modify a state, we'll update the probability of control to reflect Your Forecast. Select the Simulate an Election button to run a single election.

OK-2
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90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Select a state to update D/R probability of winning that Senate race

Reset Probabilities Simulate an Election

Probability of Control


Based On:
Your Forecast
Average

Simulated Seat Distribution
44 - 56
44 - 56
45 - 55
46 - 54
47 - 53
48 - 52
49 - 51
50 - 50
51 - 49
52 - 48
53 - 47
54 - 46
55 - 45
55 - 45

About the Kansas Senate Race »

The table below summarizes the probabilities for each 2014 Senate race. The first two columns contain the current ratings for The New York Times and The Washington Post. The Average column is the starting point for each state. This value is repeated in the Your Forecast column, and used in the simulation, unless you have overridden it in the map above. Indicates where Your Forecast differs from the Average. The columns are sortable.

Probability of Victory
Senate Seat NY Times Wash Post Average   Your Forecast
Alabama >99% >99% 100% 100%
Alaska   65%   81%   73%   73%
Arkansas   89% >99%   94%   94%
Colorado   80%   98%   89%   89%
Delaware >99%   99%   99%   99%
Georgia   60%   79%   69%   69%
Hawaii >99% >99% 100% 100%
Idaho >99% >99% 100% 100%
Illinois >99% >99% 100% 100%
Iowa   66%   88%   77%   77%
Kansas*   54%   96%   71%   71%
Kentucky   97% >99%   98%   98%
Louisiana   84%   98%   91%   91%
Maine >99% >99% 100% 100%
Massachusetts >99% >99% 100% 100%
Michigan   96% >99%   98%   98%
Minnesota >99% >99% 100% 100%
Mississippi >99% >99% 100% 100%
Montana >99% >99% 100% 100%
Nebraska >99% >99% 100% 100%
New Hampshire   75%   97%   86%   86%
New Jersey >99% >99% 100% 100%
New Mexico   99% >99%   99%   99%
North Carolina   73%   76%   74%   74%
Oklahoma >99% >99% 100% 100%
Oklahoma-2 >99% >99% 100% 100%
Oregon >99% >99% 100% 100%
Rhode Island >99% >99% 100% 100%
South Carolina >99% >99% 100% 100%
South Carolina-2 >99% >99% 100% 100%
South Dakota >99% >99% 100% 100%
Tennessee >99% >99% 100% 100%
Texas >99% >99% 100% 100%
Virginia   97% >99%   98%   98%
West Virginia >99%   98%   99%   99%
Wyoming >99% >99% 100% 100%

NY Times & Washington Post probabilities updated November 4

About the averages: A >99% probability is assumed to be 100%. Averages are rounded down to the nearest full percentage point.

* Kansas: Washington Post value is a calculated estimate. That model doesn't directly provide the winning probabilities for each candidate.

These simulations treat each state's election as an independent event. If the Democrats have a 60% chance of winning North Carolina, they will have a 60% chance of winning North Carolina in any single simulation, unaffected by the results in other states during that same simulation.

Alabama

Sessions is unopposed for re-election
Jeff Sessions
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Alaska

Mark Begich
Incumbent
Dan Sullivan
 
  NYT   65% WP   81%   73%

Arkansas

Mark Pryor
Incumbent
Tom Cotton
 
  NYT   89% WP >99%   94%

Colorado

Mark Udall
Incumbent
Cory Gardner
 
  NYT   80% WP   98%   89%

Delaware

Chris Coons
Incumbent
Kevin Wade
 
  NYT >99% WP   99%   99%

Georgia

Incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) not running.
Runoff Jan. 6, 2015, if no candidate gets 50%. Note that this is after the new Senate is sworn-in, opening up the possibility that one party may only hold the majority for a few days.
Michelle Nunn
 
David Perdue
 
  NYT   60% WP   79%   69%

Hawaii

Brian Schatz
Incumbent
Campbell Cavasso
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Idaho

Nels Mitchell
 
Jim Risch
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Illinois

Dick Durbin
Incumbent
Jim Oberweis
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Iowa

Incumbent Tom Harkin (D) not running
Bruce Braley
 
Joni Ernst
 
  NYT   66% WP   88%   77%

Kansas

See the link 'About the Kansas Race' on the right side of the page for info on Orman's plans regarding party affiliation should he win.
Greg Orman
 
Pat Roberts
Incumbent
  NYT   54% WP   96%   71%

Kentucky

Alison Lundergan Grimes
 
Mitch McConnell
Incumbent
  NYT   97% WP >99%   98%

Louisiana

Open Primary Election Day; runoff Dec. 6, if no candidate gets 50%
Mary Landrieu
Incumbent
Bill Cassidy
 
Rob Maness
 
  NYT   84% WP   98%   91%

Maine

Shenna Bellows
 
Susan Collins
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Massachusetts

Ed Markey
Incumbent
Brian Herr
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Michigan

Incumbent Carl Levin (D) not running
Gary Peters
 
Terri Lynn Land
 
  NYT   96% WP >99%   98%

Minnesota

Al Franken
Incumbent
Mike McFadden
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Mississippi

Travis Childers
 
Thad Cochran
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Montana

Incumbent John Walsh (D) not running
Amanda Curtis
 
Steve Daines
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Nebraska

Incumbent Mike Johanns (R) not running
Dave Domina
 
Ben Sasse
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

New Hampshire

Jeanne Shaheen
Incumbent
Scott Brown
 
  NYT   75% WP   97%   86%

New Jersey

Cory Booker
Incumbent
Jeff Bell
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

New Mexico

Tom Udall
Incumbent
Allen Weh
 
  NYT   99% WP >99%   99%

North Carolina

Kay Hagan
Incumbent
Thom Tillis
 
  NYT   73% WP   76%   74%

Oklahoma

Matt Silverstein
 
Jim Inhofe
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Oklahoma Seat 2

Special election to fill the remainder of Tom Coburn's term (2016); Coburn (R) is resigning at the end of this Congress
Connie Johnson
 
James Lankford
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Oregon

Jeff Merkley
Incumbent
Monica Wehby
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Rhode Island

Jack Reed
Incumbent
Mark Zaccaria
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

South Carolina

Brad Hutto
 
Lindsey Graham
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

South Carolina Seat 2

Joyce Dickerson
 
Tim Scott
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

South Dakota

Incumbent Tim Johnson (D) not running
Rick Weiland
 
Larry Pressler
 
Mike Rounds
 
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Tennessee

Gordon Ball
 
Lamar Alexander
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Texas

David Alameel
 
John Cornyn
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%

Virginia

Mark Warner
Incumbent
Ed Gillespie
 
  NYT   97% WP >99%   98%

West Virginia

Incumbent Jay Rockefeller (D) not running
Natalie Tennant
 
Shelley Moore Capito
 
  NYT >99% WP   98%   99%

Wyoming

Charlie Hardy
 
Mike Enzi
Incumbent
  NYT >99% WP >99% 100%


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