This map is populated based on current polling data for a November match-up between McCain and Obama. Where head-head polling isn't yet available, the coloring is derived from 2004 election results. Most states in this situation are those that had wide margins in 2004, and which will likely not be close in 2008.

Caution

While interesting, state-level polling data this far in advance of November is of limited predictive value. Expect to see a good deal of volatility in these numbers at least through the summer.