Upshot Presidential Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated three times a day, this is an electoral map derived from The New York Times Upshot state-level probabilities. The Upshot model combines state polls, a state's past election results and national polling to generate these probabilities.
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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Map :
One in Ten Republicans Less Likely to Vote for Trump
Bonus Quote of the Day
Biden Goes All-In Calling Trump a ‘Convicted Felon’
Republicans Join Trump’s Attacks on Justice System
Trump Verdict Hardens Many Views, but Changes Some
Headlines
Overview and Live Results: Texas Primary Runoff Elections
30 runoffs for U.S. House and State Legislative seats where no candidate received a majority in the March 5 primary
Idaho Democratic Caucus Results
Joe Biden received 95%, winning all 23 pledged delegates
Live Results: Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon Primaries
Four states hold their down-ballot primaries this Tuesday, with presidential contests also on the ballot in Kentucky and Oregon
Overview and Live Results: California Congressional District 20 Special Election
The winner will complete the term of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned at the end of last year.
Live Results: Maryland, Nebraska, West Virginia Primaries; North Carolina Runoffs
Senate Democratic Primary in Maryland is the marquee race, although there are several competitive House races of interest
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